July 10, Kathmandu.
The debate has begun over the regional implications of the unrest in Afghanistan. Neighboring India and China are preparing to deal with a vacuum following the withdrawal of US troops.
China has recalled some of its citizens, while India has asked its citizens to stay safe and provide full details to the embassy.
Although the instability and insecurity that may arise in Afghanistan does not directly affect Nepal, analysts say that its offspring will reach Nepal.
Security expert and retired Nepal Army aide Suresh Sharma say there is still an armed group in the Kashmir Valley that is happy when the Taliban come to Afghanistan and there is a danger that extremists may flee and hide in Nepal if there is a problem.
"The Taliban has already shown its radical nature. He still controls many parts of Afghanistan. They are still showing their weapons, their slogan is the same, 'Sharma said.' That element could be even more sparks and it could hit the Kashmir Valley. There are still armed groups that will be happy when the Taliban come. '
He suggested that Nepal Police should pay special attention to this. "It is not possible to say what will happen now, but what is happening there will affect the region because we are not so far away," said Sharma, a security expert.
Should I speak Nepali?
There is no Nepali embassy in Afghanistan. It is the responsibility of the Nepalese Embassy in New Delhi to suggest to the government what is happening there and what opinion Nepal should form.
But Nepali citizens are also there. The government banned Nepalis from traveling to Libya and Syria, along with Afghanistan, in 2016 after a Taliban suicide bomber killed 13 Nepali security guards in the capital, Kabul. But after a while, it was blown up.
According to the government's economic survey, 654 people, including two women, have applied for employment in Afghanistan as of February this year. But the number of Nepalis is estimated to be more than this.
Although there are data of Nepalis working as employees in various UN agencies and non-governmental organizations, there are no details of those who arrived illegally.
A Nepali working in an NGO there said that the security situation has not deteriorated so much that there is no need to worry about Nepali citizens. "The situation is not as calm as it used to be. The activities of various groups have increased," he said. According to him, various agencies working there have taken some steps for the safety of their employees.
But since Nepal does not have an embassy in Afghanistan, Nepali citizens may be in trouble if something happens. Until a few years ago, the Nepalese embassy in Islamabad looked after Afghanistan, but now the Nepalese embassy in New Delhi looks after Afghanistan. According to the Nepali embassy in Delhi, follow-up work is being carried out on the security threats of Nepalis there.
According to experts, Nepal should be aware of the latest developments in Afghanistan. If necessary, we should make our views public because Nepal has always spoken in favor of regional stability and peace.
Analyst Devraj Dahal says the instability in Afghanistan does not directly affect Nepal, but it is a matter of regional peace and stability. "It does not directly affect us, but when the region is unstable, it will affect Nepal as well," Dahal said.
Pramod Jaiswal, research director at the Nepal Institute for International Co-operation and Engagement, suggests that while Nepal's position may not make much difference, it should speak in favor of regional peace and stability. He says, “Nepal's position does not make a difference because Nepal is not a country with borders. But to show its presence, Nepal must speak in favor of peace and stability.
How will it affect SAARC?
Afghanistan is the youngest member of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). Since Afghanistan became a member in 2007, the number of SAARC member countries has reached eight. At the same time, the impact of Afghanistan's internal political instability on SAARC was debated in diplomatic circles.
Afghanistan, meanwhile, has been relatively peaceful, with little impact on SAARC. But analysts say that if the violence escalates again, it will further affect the sacked SAARC. Just as the war between India and Pakistan over the past two decades has affected SAARC, so too has the internal situation in Afghanistan. This is because SAARC cannot move forward without the participation or absence of a single-member state.
In the coming days, Afghanistan will once again be in the throes of a conflict that will affect the process of regional connectivity and other infrastructure construction, Jaiswal said. He says, "If there is unrest, everyone's attention is focused on security and in such a situation, other development and connectivity issues cannot move forward." It also affects regional development.
Therefore, analysts suggest that SAARC chair country Nepal should closely monitor the developments in Afghanistan and, if necessary, make its views public.
