July 14, Kathmandu.
In the past, when a new Prime Minister was appointed in Nepal, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi would immediately congratulate him by telephone or on social media.
Modi had sent the then External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj to Kathmandu to congratulate KP Sharma Oli as soon as the 2074 election results were made public.
Before Oli was sworn in as the Prime Minister, Swaraj returned to Kathmandu and greeted Oli at the Solty Hotel. Even before that, the Prime Minister of India used to get phone calls from the Prime Minister without being able to leave the Parliament building.
However, this time India did not rush to congratulate the new Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba. On Wednesday afternoon, the Indian Ambassador to Nepal Vinay Mohan Qatar met Deuba and congratulated him. He said he was ready to work with Deuba's team to deepen the multifaceted partnership between the two countries.
On the other hand, neighboring China has not spoken. This time, the United States has become the first country to congratulate Deuba. US Ambassador to Nepal Randy Berry congratulated him on Twitter on Tuesday. "Congratulations and best wishes to the newly appointed Prime Minister of Nepal, Sher Bahadur Deuba," said Ambassador Berry. "We look forward to working with him to extend the nearly 75-year-old friendship to all levels, from the government to the people."
Analysts say there are two main reasons why India did not rush to congratulate Deuba. First, India wants to send a message that it has no role in the latest political developments. Second, it is a sign that India is not satisfied with the Supreme Court's decision.
Executive Director of the Center for Nepal and South Asian Studies under Tribhuvan University, Dr. Mrigendra Bahadur Karki says that this time there is no competition between India and China to congratulate the new Prime Minister.
He says, 'India's understanding may be that the court's decision did not come as it wanted. First of all, the United States seemed to congratulate the new Prime Minister Deuba. According to Karki, even though it seems normal, it has given a deep signal to diplomacy. "It clearly shows that there are many challenges for Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba," Karki said.
The Indian newspaper has published an editorial saying that the Supreme Court has restored the parliament of Nepal and saved democracy. He mentioned that the Nepali Congress and Sher Bahadur Deuba were traditional friends of India and would be comfortable for India. He said it would be easy to form a Congress government in Kathmandu at a time when tensions are running high in the Ladakh region with India and China.
For some time, relations between India and Deuba were not so good. In particular, Deuba understood that India was trying to perpetuate Oli, so he made some public statements targeting India. After all, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party wanted Oli's government to continue. Deuba even understood that he could not become the Prime Minister because of India.
Addressing a program organized on the occasion of the founding day of the Nepal Students' Union on April 20, Deuba had said that Oli had slipped under India's leg. He had said at the time: "Yesterday, the most nationalist Oli has become India's flagship." Not only that, Deuba used to tell people close to him that India did not help him to become the Prime Minister.
Five former prime ministers, including Deuba, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Madhav Kumar Nepal, Jhala Nath Khanal, and Baburam Bhattarai, raised the issue of external interference to India. He said in a statement, "We, the Nepalese, should make the decision about Nepal and we want to draw everyone's attention to the fact that there should be no direct or indirect interference or manipulation of external forces in Nepal's internal politics."
These developments sent a message of irritation to India, but Deuba has been trying to improve relations with India's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party through various channels in recent days. Nepal-India affairs expert Dr. Nihar R Nayak says that India will immediately adopt a 'wait and see' policy towards the Deuba government.
"The next 30 days are very important and sensitive for the new government, so India will adopt a 'wait and see' policy," he said. According to him, the regular relations between the two countries are constantly moving forward.
According to him, Deuba can now 'reach out to India to get a vote of confidence in Parliament. He said, "Because there is a suspicion or understanding in Kathmandu that Mahanta Thakur has supported Oli at the request of India." Now Deuba's priority will be to get Mahantha's support. '
Dr. Karki Deuba and Bharat say that they cannot ignore each other. "India has a very dominant role in Nepal's politics, so Deuba cannot ignore India," says Karki. "India should also virtually come to Nepal." No one can diffuse the Chuchche map, India must be ready to solve all the problems between Nepal and India, including Duwan. Therefore, maintaining direct dialogue and contacts at the Indian political level seems to be a very challenging task for Deuba.
Deuba, who has created the image of a leader with good relations with the West, does not have much connection with the Indian establishment. Even in New Delhi, he is considered a leader with good relations with the West.
Deuba had visited India in 2074 BS when he was the Prime Minister. At that time, he had given a statement in a joint press conference with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to amend the constitution to address the demands of the Madhesi parties.
Deuba was criticized for making the statement to make India happy. During the visit, the two countries issued a 46-point joint statement. During the visit, many attempts to resolve the remaining contentious issues of the Pancheshwor project were unsuccessful. The two countries had agreed to resolve the Pancheshwar issue as soon as possible.
Although the Nepali Congress has had good relations with the Indian National Congress and socialist parties in the past, Deuba has no direct contact with the leaders of the Bharatiya Janata Party, which has been in power for seven years.
Diplomatic affairs expert Geja Sharma Wagle says Deuba's government will make its neighbors a high priority in diplomacy. Stating that the Congress has traditionally maintained close and intimate relations with India, he said that the diplomatic credibility of the Nepali Congress was higher than that of other parties.
Therefore, relations with India will improve during Deuba's tenure. As in the past, there will be cordial relations, 'Wagle said.' Nepal and India have some contentious issues, but resolving those issues through high-level diplomatic dialogue is essential to take Nepal-India relations to new heights based on Nepal's national interests and priorities. '
