July 3, Kathmandu. During a visit to Nepal in October 2019, Chinese President Xi Jinping said in a meeting with Sher Bahadur Deuba, "The Chinese people will never forget the important contribution made by the Nepali Congress to the development of relations between the two countries."
The general perception that Deuba is close to countries in the West, the Chinese allegation that the Nepali Congress is a 'pro-India party, and some recent misgivings between the Congress and China have raised interest and curiosity about how relations with China will move forward during Deuba's tenure. Chairman of the Maoist Center Pushpa Kamal Dahal 'Prachanda', a decisive partner of the government, has already had good relations with China.
Analysts say China will open up if it has the will to advance cooperation with China qualitatively. According to him, China has recently adopted a policy of strengthening economic cooperation in South Asian countries, including Nepal, whichever party comes to power. Despite the desire to form a strong left-wing government in Nepal, it is the Chinese policy to take the initiative of maximum cooperation whichever party comes to power to expand its influence.
Nepal-China case expert Dr. Rupak Sapkota says, “During Deuba's tenure, China does not have high expectations from Nepal right now. China's expectations were high when the CPN (Maoist) government was formed in 2018 BS. But with the Maoists participating in the government, China seems confident. On top of that, all parties, including Congress, are committed to the one-China policy. In that sense, China is open and clear to cooperate with Sher Bahadur Deuba.
China has signaled its readiness to work with the new coalition government. On Friday, the Chinese Ambassador to Nepal Hou Yanchi met with all the leaders of the coalition, including Prime Minister Deuba, and said that China would fully support the new government. As soon as the new government is formed, China has announced to provide additional 1.6 million vaccines. According to Sapkota, the Chinese ambassador met with all the leaders and conveyed the message that the kind of change in Nepal's internal balance of power would not make any difference to us.
Sapkota said, "The gesture demonstration by the Chinese ambassador indicates that we are ready for politics, economic partnership, and any force that is ready to fight the current crisis." For some time now, it seems that China has been pursuing a policy of moving forward on any economic issue.
Those two issues that raise suspicions
Although Xi praised the Nepali Congress during his visit to Nepal, two main issues and incidents surfaced in the meantime, which raised various misgivings between the Nepali Congress and China. First, the Chinese Communist Party's unnatural alliance with the Communist Party of Nepal and the government. Exchanges including training with the CPN (Maoist), a series of visits to China by CPN (Maoist) leaders, and strained contacts with the Nepali Congress have raised suspicions that China may not want to cooperate only with the Communist Party in Nepal. Leaders of the Nepali Congress also publicly criticized the cooperation between the CPN (Maoist) and the Chinese Communist Party. After that, the relationship between the Nepali Congress and China cooled down due to the Nepali Congress' claim that China had formed a structure on Nepali soil in Humla. A Nepali Congress team led by Congress leader Jeevan Bahadur Shahi prepared an on-site report stating that China had crossed the border.
Shahi's report was adopted by the Congress Central Working Committee. The Chinese embassy in Kathmandu sent a diplomatic letter directly to the Nepali Congress calling it objectionable. Not only that, in November last year, China's official mouthpiece Global Times tagged the Nepali Congress as a 'pro-Indian party, which the Congress took very seriously. This is probably the first time such allegations have been made between the Nepali Congress and China.
Experts say that it was a mistake for Congress to take a position without the study of the technical team, while the government has repeatedly issued a statement saying that the border has not been crossed. The last time both have reviewed in this regard.
Apart from this, some of the policies taken by Deuba when he was the Prime Minister have also raised concerns. In 2074 BS, the Deuba government had decided not to award the contract of the Budhigandaki Hydropower Project to the Chinese company Gejuwa. However, as soon as the prime minister was appointed, Oli agreed to give China a contract. But for some time, relations between Congress and China have improved. The Nepali Congress was invited with special priority to the three high-level BRI conferences held a few months ago. On the occasion of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party, Sher Bahadur Deuba also wished him well.
The basis of the Congress-China relations drawn by BP
The role played by BP Koirala, the founding leader of the Nepali Congress, in advancing Nepal-China relations is always appreciated. The visit of the then Prime Minister BP Koirala to China in 1960 laid the foundation of trust between the two countries. BP Koirala had a very deep and trusting relationship with Chinese Prime Minister Zhou Enlai. The border dispute between Nepal and China was resolved based on the same belief. This was the signal given by Xi during his meeting with Deuba in 2019. Even now, this issue has been raised in the meetings of the Nepali Congress and Chinese leaders.
The US factor in its relationship with China
The US factor has come to the fore in Nepal's relations with China. In particular, China is very interested in Nepal's policy on the US Agency for International Development (MCC) and the Indian Ocean Strategy. UML Chairman Oli and CPN-Maoist Central Committee Chairman Prachanda have different views on this issue. Deuba is unconditionally in favor of MCC approval while Prachanda is in favor of amending some provisions of the MCC.
Similarly, Prachanda has completely rejected the US Indian Ocean strategy. Although Chinese government representatives did not at least publicly oppose the MCC, the statements of Chinese state media and experts clearly indicate that Nepal should not ratify the MCC. Therefore, a dispute may arise between Deuba and Prachanda on these issues.
The Chinese government's mouthpiece, the Global Times, has been publishing a series of articles saying that South Asian countries, including Nepal, should not participate in the MCC and Indian Ocean strategy. Deuba's first priority is the approval of the MCC.
Dr. Sapkota says, “There is a lot of curiosity about the cordial relations with China in the context of Deuba's open statement on MCC when he was out of government yesterday. Now the character of the government is united. Prachanda, a key partner in the government, has said that Nepal will not participate in the Indian Ocean strategy and has taken a stand that the MCC should be amended and passed. We have to build a balanced relationship anyway. ' According to him, looking at the character and structure of the government now, it seems that the foreign policy is moving forward in a balanced manner.
Prachanda believes in connecting Deuba with China
Analysts say that China is confident that cooperation with Nepal will move forward due to Prachanda's decisive role in the current coalition government. Prachanda has a personal relationship with Chinese President Xi. Prachanda was the first Nepali leader to meet C after becoming president. He first met Xi in 2013, but Dahal has met Xi several times since then.
Not only that, Prachanda is in favor of qualitatively advancing cooperation with China. A leader close to Prachanda says, "China calls all other leaders good friends but calls Prachanda an old and good friend." According to analysts, Prachanda can be believed to play an important role in advancing relations with China.
Implementation of the agreement reached during the visit of BRI and C.
According to analysts, with the formation of the new government in Nepal, the major security concerns are the implementation of the bilateral agreement reached during the visit of the BRI and the Chinese President in 2019. China had expected BRI projects to move forward during the CPN (Maoist) government, but Oli did not seem to have the will. Therefore, China seems to be interested in BRI and the implementation of the agreement. On top of that, Prachanda is in favor of moving ahead with BRI projects during this government.
The BRI framework was signed between Nepal and China in 2017 when Prachanda was the Prime Minister. Analyst Sapkota says, "My analysis is that during Deuba's tenure, some BRI projects are moving forward. Prachanda is in favor of moving some projects forward, so it is likely to move forward."
How will relations with China move forward?
Analyst Trilokya Raj Aryal, who has been monitoring the Nepal-China issue for a long time, says that it is not possible to say how the Deuba government's relationship with China will move forward. But looking at the signs on Friday, China announced an additional 1.6 million vaccine grants as soon as the new government arrives. Two things could happen, 'Aryal said.' Even if India has a role in forming a new government, China will not go against you in Nepal. The message may also be given. Second, our government was formed, so it may have been rewarded by vaccination. So I'm not in a position to say yes. '
